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Relative sea-level rise and potential submersion risk for 2100 on 16 coastal plains of the mediterranean sea

TitleRelative sea-level rise and potential submersion risk for 2100 on 16 coastal plains of the mediterranean sea
Publication TypeArticolo su Rivista peer-reviewed
Year of Publication2020
AuthorsAntonioli, F., Falco G.D., Presti V.L., Moretti Lorenzo, Scardino G., Anzidei M., Bonaldo D., Carniel S., Leoni G., Furlani S., Marsico A., Petitta Marcello, Randazzo G., Scicchitano G., and Mastronuzzi G.
JournalWater (Switzerland)
KeywordsAnthropic activity, coastal development, coastal plain, Coastal zones, Cyprus, Earth observation data, France, geomorphological response, Glacial geology, human activity, human settlement, Landforms, lidar, Light detection and ranging, Mediterranean countries, Mediterranean environment, Mediterranean Sea, Morphological features, multicriteria analysis, Optical radar, Relative sea level rise, sea level, sea level change, Sea-level rise scenarios, Spain, Tectonics, tidal cycle, Tidal environments, Tunisia

The coasts of the Mediterranean Sea are dynamic habitats in which human activities have been conducted for centuries and which feature micro-tidal environments with about 0.40 m of range. For this reason, human settlements are still concentrated along a narrow coastline strip, where any change in the sea level and coastal dynamics may impact anthropic activities. In the frame of the RITMARE and the Copernicus Projects, we analyzed light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and Copernicus Earth Observation data to provide estimates of potential marine submersion for 2100 for 16 small-sized coastal plains located in the Italian peninsula and four Mediterranean countries (France, Spain, Tunisia, Cyprus) all characterized by different geological, tectonic and morphological features. The objective of this multidisciplinary study is to provide the first maps of sea-level rise scenarios for 2100 for the IPCC RCP 8.5 and Rahmstorf (2007) projections for the above affected coastal zones, which are the locations of touristic resorts, railways, airports and heritage sites. On the basis of our model (eustatic projection for 2100, glaciohydrostasy values and tectonic vertical movement), we provide 16 high-definition submersion maps. We estimated a potential loss of land for the above areas of between about 148 km2 (IPCC-RCP8.5 scenario) and 192 km2 (Rahmstorf scenario), along a coastline length of about 400 km. © 2020 by the authors.


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Citation KeyAntonioli2020